Retire First Newsletter

January 2019 –


Certainty vs Growth  by Doug Allan

We entered 2018 with optimism as the fiscal stimulus of the US tax cuts promised higher
earnings for all US based companies. While higher US short term interest rates were expected
to counter some of this stimulus, it appeared that growth would cause long term
interest rates to rise at the same time; keeping the yield curve from inverting for the foreseeable
future. Although growth did occur in the US, many economies around the world
were facing economic slow downs. Ultimately; the rising US Dollar, trade sanctions, government
shut downs, etc. started to take its toll. The big surprise seems to have started in
mid November when 10-year US treasury yields unexpectedly fell from 3.2% to 2.6% within
30 days, caused by weak global growth narrowing the yield curve dramatically.

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